Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Not all cleaner fish

If it achieves nothing else, the presence of Western forces in Afghanistan will continue to provide employment for countless transnational hangers-on (see 1 and 6).

Two poor Central Asian states. Two different development profiles.

1. International Organizations
2. Government Institutions
3. Private Sector
4. Finance Institutions
5. Training and Research
6. Civil Society
7. Consultancy
8. Information
9. Grantmakers

Source: Directory of Development Organizations.

In terms of natural resources, Uzbekistan has decent reserves of natural gas which might explain its higher GDP but Afghanistan has huge mineral resources

Uzbekistan's advantage really is that it has a cooperation bonus as a functioning state: the largest ethnic group within its boundaries makes up 80% of the population, compared to 40% in Afghanistan. 

No amount of transnational busy-bodies with guns and/or clip-boards is going to put Afghanistan together. The best chance of stability in the region is a split-state solution, which leaves ethnic groups the majority in their own states. 

But if there were actually a balance of power in the region the tranzis might have to go home. But now they have their feet on the ground, how hard is that going to be?

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